Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2440/1069
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Type: Journal article
Title: First-order reliability method for estimating reliability, vulnerability, and resilience
Author: Maier, H.
Lence, B.
Tolson, B.
Foschi, R.
Citation: Water Resources Research, 2001; 37(3):779-790
Publisher: Amer Geophysical Union
Issue Date: 2001
ISSN: 0043-1397
Statement of
Responsibility: 
Holger R. Maier, Barbara J. Lence, Bryan A. Tolson, and Ricardo O. Foschi
Abstract: Reliability, vulnerability, and resilience provide measures of the frequency, magnitude, and duration of the failure of water resources systems, respectively. Traditionally, these measures have been estimated using simulation. However, this can be computationally intensive, particularly when complex system-response models are used, when many estimates of the performance measures are required, and when persistence among the data needs to be taken into account. In this paper, an efficient method for estimating reliability, vulnerability, and resilience, which is based on the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), is developed and demonstrated for the case study of managing water quality in the Willamette River, Oregon. Reliability, vulnerability, and resilience are determined for different dissolved oxygen (DO) standards. DO is simulated using a QUAL2EU water quality response model that has recently been developed for the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality (ODEQ) as part of the Willamette River Basin Water Quality Study (WRBWQS). The results obtained indicate that FORM can be used to efficiently estimate reliability, vulnerability, and resilience.
Rights: © 2001 American Geophysical Union
RMID: 0020010218
DOI: 10.1029/2000WR900329
Published version: http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2001/2000WR900329.shtml
Appears in Collections:Civil and Environmental Engineering publications
Environment Institute publications

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