Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2440/112226
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Type: Journal article
Title: Association between malaria incidence and meteorological factors: a multi-location study in China, 2005-2012
Author: Xiang, J.
Hansen, A.
Liu, Q.
Tong, M.
Liu, X.
Sun, Y.
Cameron, S.
Hanson-Easey, S.
Han, G.
Williams, C.
Weinstein, P.
Bi, P.
Citation: Epidemiology and infection, 2018; 146(1):89-99
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Issue Date: 2018
ISSN: 0950-2688
1469-4409
Statement of
Responsibility: 
J. Xiang, A. Hansen, Q. Liu, M. X. Tong, X. Liu, Y. Sun, S. Cameron, S. Hanson-Easey, G. S. Han, C. Williams, P. Weinstein and P. Bi
Abstract: This study aims to investigate the climate-malaria associations in nine cities selected from malaria high-risk areas in China. Daily reports of malaria cases in Anhui, Henan, and Yunnan Provinces for 2005-2012 were obtained from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Generalized estimating equation models were used to quantify the city-specific climate-malaria associations. Multivariate random-effects meta-regression analyses were used to pool the city-specific effects. An inverted-U-shaped curve relationship was observed between temperatures, average relative humidity, and malaria. A 1 °C increase of maximum temperature (T max) resulted in 6·7% (95% CI 4·6-8·8%) to 15·8% (95% CI 14·1-17·4%) increase of malaria, with corresponding lags ranging from 7 to 45 days. For minimum temperature (T min), the effect estimates peaked at lag 0 to 40 days, ranging from 5·3% (95% CI 4·4-6·2%) to 17·9% (95% CI 15·6-20·1%). Malaria is more sensitive to T min in cool climates and T max in warm climates. The duration of lag effect in a cool climate zone is longer than that in a warm climate zone. Lagged effects did not vanish after an epidemic season but waned gradually in the following 2-3 warm seasons. A warming climate may potentially increase the risk of malaria resurgence in China.
Keywords: Climate change; malaria; mosquito; temperature; weather
Rights: © Cambridge University Press 2017
RMID: 0030079365
DOI: 10.1017/s0950268817002254
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