Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2440/112827
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Type: Journal article
Title: Statistical modelling for recurrent events: an application to sports injuries
Author: Ullah, S.
Gabbett, T.
Finch, C.
Citation: British Journal of Sports Medicine, 2014; 48(17):1287-1293
Publisher: BMJ Publishing
Issue Date: 2014
ISSN: 0306-3674
1473-0480
Statement of
Responsibility: 
Shahid Ullah, Tim J Gabbett, Caroline F Finch
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Injuries are often recurrent, with subsequent injuries influenced by previous occurrences and hence correlation between events needs to be taken into account when analysing such data. OBJECTIVE: This paper compares five different survival models (Cox proportional hazards (CoxPH) model and the following generalisations to recurrent event data: Andersen-Gill (A-G), frailty, Wei-Lin-Weissfeld total time (WLW-TT) marginal, Prentice-Williams-Peterson gap time (PWP-GT) conditional models) for the analysis of recurrent injury data. METHODS: Empirical evaluation and comparison of different models were performed using model selection criteria and goodness-of-fit statistics. Simulation studies assessed the size and power of each model fit. RESULTS: The modelling approach is demonstrated through direct application to Australian National Rugby League recurrent injury data collected over the 2008 playing season. Of the 35 players analysed, 14 (40%) players had more than 1 injury and 47 contact injuries were sustained over 29 matches. The CoxPH model provided the poorest fit to the recurrent sports injury data. The fit was improved with the A-G and frailty models, compared to WLW-TT and PWP-GT models. CONCLUSIONS: Despite little difference in model fit between the A-G and frailty models, in the interest of fewer statistical assumptions it is recommended that, where relevant, future studies involving modelling of recurrent sports injury data use the frailty model in preference to the CoxPH model or its other generalisations. The paper provides a rationale for future statistical modelling approaches for recurrent sports injury.
Keywords: Musculoskeletal System; Humans; Athletic Injuries; Contusions; Sprains and Strains; Recurrence; Hematoma; Models, Statistical; Risk Factors; Football; Australia; Male; Kaplan-Meier Estimate
Rights: Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 3.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/
RMID: 0030089614
DOI: 10.1136/bjsports-2011-090803
Grant ID: http://purl.org/au-research/grants/nhmrc/565900
Appears in Collections:Medical Sciences publications

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