Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://hdl.handle.net/2440/116319
Citations | ||
Scopus | Web of Science® | Altmetric |
---|---|---|
?
|
?
|
Full metadata record
DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.author | Welsh, M. | - |
dc.contributor.author | Begg, S. | - |
dc.date.issued | 2018 | - |
dc.identifier.citation | EURO Journal on Decision Processes, 2018; 6(1-2):171-212 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 2193-9438 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 2193-9446 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2440/116319 | - |
dc.description.abstract | Biases like overconfidence and anchoring affect values elicited from people in predictable ways – due to people’s inherent cognitive processes. The More-Or-Less Elicitation (MOLE) process takes insights from how biases affect people’s decisions to design an elicitation process to mitigate or eliminate bias. MOLE relies on four, key insights: 1) uncertainty regarding the location of estimates means people can be unwilling to exclude values they would not specifically include; 2) repeated estimates can be averaged to produce a better, final estimate; 3) people are better at relative than absolute judgements; and, 4) consideration of multiple values prevents anchoring on a particular number. MOLE achieves these by having people repeatedly choose between options presented to them by the computerised tool rather than making estimates directly, and constructing a range logically consistent with (i.e., not ruled out by) the person’s choices in the background. Herein, MOLE is compared, across four experiments, with eight elicitation processes – all requiring direct estimation of values – and is shown to greatly reduce overconfidence in estimated ranges and to generate best guesses that are more accurate than directly estimated equivalents. This is demonstrated across three domains – in perceptual and epistemic uncertainty and in a forecasting task. | - |
dc.description.statementofresponsibility | Matthew B. Welsh, Steve H. Begg | - |
dc.language.iso | en | - |
dc.publisher | Springer | - |
dc.rights | © Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature and EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies 2018 | - |
dc.source.uri | http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40070-018-0084-5 | - |
dc.subject | Bias; elicitation; forecasting; overconfidence; range estimation; anchoring | - |
dc.title | More-or-less elicitation (MOLE): reducing bias in range estimation and forecasting | - |
dc.type | Journal article | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1007/s40070-018-0084-5 | - |
dc.relation.grant | http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/LP160101460 | - |
pubs.publication-status | Published | - |
dc.identifier.orcid | Welsh, M. [0000-0002-3605-716X] | - |
dc.identifier.orcid | Begg, S. [0000-0003-3329-9064] | - |
Appears in Collections: | Aurora harvest 3 Australian School of Petroleum publications |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
---|---|---|---|---|
hdl_116319.pdf | Accepted version | 979.96 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.