Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2440/117879
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Type: Journal article
Title: The burden of pancreatic cancer in Australia attributable to smoking
Author: Arriaga, M.E.
Vajdic, C.M.
MacInnis, R.J.
Canfell, K.
Magliano, D.J.
Shaw, J.E.
Byles, J.E.
Giles, G.G.
Taylor, A.W.
Gill, T.K.
Hirani, V.
Cumming, R.G.
Mitchell, R.P.
Banks, E.
Marker, J.
Adelstein, B.-.A.
Laaksonen, M.A.
Citation: The Medical journal of Australia, 2019; 210(5):213-220
Publisher: Wiley; Australasian Medical Publishing Company
Issue Date: 2019
ISSN: 0025-729X
1326-5377
Statement of
Responsibility: 
Maria E Arriaga, Claire M Vajdic, Robert J MacInnis, Karen Canfell, Dianna J Magliano, Jonathan E Shaw, Julie E Byles, Graham G Giles, Anne W Taylor, Tiffany K Gill, Vasant Hirani, Robert G Cumming, R Paul Mitchell, Emily Banks, Julie Marker, Barbara-Ann Adelstein, Maarit A Laaksonen
Abstract: Objective: To estimate the burden of pancreatic cancer in Australia attributable to modifiable exposures, particularly smoking. Design: Prospective pooled cohort study. Setting, Participants: Seven prospective Australian study cohorts (total sample size, 365 084 adults); participant data linked to national registries to identify cases of pancreatic cancer and deaths. Main Outcome Measures: Associations between exposures and incidence of pancreatic cancer, estimated in a proportional hazards model, adjusted for age, sex, study, and other exposures; future burden of pancreatic cancer avoidable by changes in exposure estimated as population attributable fractions (PAFs) for whole population and for specific population subgroups with a method accounting for competing risk of death. Results: There were 604 incident cases of pancreatic cancer during the first 10 years of follow-up. Current and recent smoking explained 21.7% (95% CI, 13.8-28.9%) and current smoking alone explained 15.3% (95% CI, 8.6-22.6%) of future pancreatic cancer burden. This proportion of the burden would be avoidable over 25 years were current smokers to quit and there were no new smokers. The burden attributable to current smoking is greater for men (23.9%; 95% CI, 13.3-33.3%) than for women (7.2%; 95% CI, -0.4% to 14.2%; P = 0.007) and for those under 65 (19.0%; 95% CI, 8.1-28.6%) than for older people (6.6%; 95% CI, 1.9-11.1%; P = 0.030). There were no independent relationships between body mass index or alcohol consumption and pancreatic cancer. Conclusions: Strategies that reduce the uptake of smoking and encourage current smokers to quit could substantially reduce the future incidence of pancreatic cancer in Australia, particularly among men.
Keywords: Cancer; prospective studies
Rights: © 2019 AMPCo Pty Ltd
RMID: 0030107520
DOI: 10.5694/mja2.12108
Grant ID: http://purl.org/au-research/grants/nhmrc/1060991
http://purl.org/au-research/grants/nhmrc/1053642
http://purl.org/au-research/grants/nhmrc/1082989
http://purl.org/au-research/grants/nhmrc/1136128
http://purl.org/au-research/grants/nhmrc/1079438
http://purl.org/au-research/grants/nhmrc/1118161
Appears in Collections:Medicine publications

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