Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://hdl.handle.net/2440/117935
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Type: | Journal article |
Title: | Outstanding challenges in the transferability of ecological models |
Author: | Yates, K.L. Bouchet, P.J. Caley, M.J. Mengersen, K. Randin, C.F. Parnell, S. Fielding, A.H. Bamford, A.J. Ban, S. Barbosa, A.M. Dormann, C.F. Elith, J. Embling, C.B. Ervin, G.N. Fisher, R. Gould, S. Graf, R.F. Gregr, E.J. Halpin, P.N. Heikkinen, R.K. et al. |
Citation: | Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 2018; 33(10):790-802 |
Publisher: | Elsevier |
Issue Date: | 2018 |
ISSN: | 0169-5347 1872-8383 |
Statement of Responsibility: | Katherine L. Yates ... Alice R. Jones ... et al. |
Abstract: | Predictive models are central to many scientific disciplines and vital for informing management in a rapidly changing world. However, limited understanding of the accuracy and precision of models transferred to novel conditions (their 'transferability') undermines confidence in their predictions. Here, 50 experts identified priority knowledge gaps which, if filled, will most improve model transfers. These are summarized into six technical and six fundamental challenges, which underlie the combined need to intensify research on the determinants of ecological predictability, including species traits and data quality, and develop best practices for transferring models. Of high importance is the identification of a widely applicable set of transferability metrics, with appropriate tools to quantify the sources and impacts of prediction uncertainty under novel conditions. |
Keywords: | Predictive modeling extrapolation generality habitat models model transfers species distribution models uncertainty |
Rights: | © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-ncnd/ 4.0/). |
DOI: | 10.1016/j.tree.2018.08.001 |
Grant ID: | http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/DE170100841 http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/DE140100701 http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/CE1101014 |
Published version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2018.08.001 |
Appears in Collections: | Aurora harvest 3 Earth and Environmental Sciences publications |
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hdl_117935.pdf | Published version | 2.23 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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