Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2440/120910
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dc.contributor.authorHerrando-Pérez, S.en
dc.contributor.authorBradshaw, C.en
dc.contributor.authorLewandowsky, S.en
dc.contributor.authorVieites, D.en
dc.date.issued2019en
dc.identifier.citationBioScience, 2019; 69(3):209-219en
dc.identifier.issn0006-3568en
dc.identifier.issn1525-3244en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2440/120910-
dc.description.abstractThe scientific evidence for anthropogenic climate change is empirically settled, but communicating it to nonscientific audiences remains challenging. To be explicit about the state of knowledge on climate science, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has adopted a vocabulary that ranks climate findings through certainty-calibrated qualifiers of confidence and likelihood. In this article, we quantified the occurrence of knowns and unknowns about “The Physical Science Basis” of the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report by counting the frequency of calibrated qualifiers. We found that the tone of the IPCC's probabilistic language is remarkably conservative (mean confidence is medium, and mean likelihood is 66%–100% or 0–33%), and emanates from the IPCC recommendations themselves, complexity of climate research, and exposure to politically motivated debates. Leveraging communication of uncertainty with overwhelming scientific consensus about anthropogenic climate change should be one element of a wider reform, whereby the creation of an IPCC outreach working group could enhance the transmission of climate science to the panel's audiences.en
dc.description.statementofresponsibilitySalvador Herrando-Pérez, Corey J A Bradshaw, Stephan Lewandowsky, David R Vieitesen
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherOxford University Pressen
dc.rights© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Institute of Biological Sciences. All rights reserved.en
dc.subjectClimate change; communication; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; terminology; uncertaintyen
dc.titleStatistical language backs conservatism in climate-change assessmentsen
dc.typeJournal articleen
dc.identifier.rmid0030112758en
dc.identifier.doi10.1093/biosci/biz004en
dc.relation.granthttp://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/DP160103596en
dc.identifier.pubid467318-
pubs.library.collectionEnvironment Institute publicationsen
pubs.library.teamDS10en
pubs.verification-statusVerifieden
pubs.publication-statusPublisheden
dc.identifier.orcidHerrando-Pérez, S. [0000-0001-6052-6854]en
dc.identifier.orcidBradshaw, C. [0000-0002-5328-7741]en
Appears in Collections:Environment Institute publications

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