Inflation and returns revisited: a TAR approach

Abstract

A linear null relationship between nominal returns and inflation is tested against threshold alternatives using quarterly and monthly data for 39 different countries. These tests frequently reject the null in favor of the alternative. The threshold alternatives and the linear nulls are estimated to uncover the nature of the linear and threshold relationships. Estimation results reveal that ‘low-average-inflation’ countries tend to display a negative or negative but insignificant linear relationship between returns and inflation, while ‘high-average-inflation’ countries often evince a strong positive or positive but insignificant linear relationship. The same pattern occurs in the threshold models, after a threshold level of inflation is reached. Before this threshold, the relationship is weaker and often insignificant.