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Type: Journal article
Title: Time-series analysis of the risk factors for haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome: comparison of statistical models
Author: Hu, W.
Mengersen, K.
Bi, P.
Tong, S.
Citation: Epidemiology and Infection, 2007; 135(2):245-252
Publisher: Cambridge Univ Press
Issue Date: 2007
ISSN: 0950-2688
Statement of
W. Hu, K. Mengersen, P. Bi and S. Tong
Abstract: Three conventional regression models were compared using the time-series data of the occurrence of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and several key climatic and occupational variables collected in low-lying land, Anhui Province, China. Model I was a linear time series with normally distributed residuals; model II was a generalized linear model with Poisson-distributed residuals and a log link; and model III was a generalized additive model with the same distributional features as model II. Model I was fitted using least squares whereas models II and III were fitted using maximum likelihood. The results show that the correlations between the HFRS incidence and the independent variables measured (i.e. difference in water level, autumn crop production and density of Apodemus agrarius) ranged from −0·40 to 0·89. The HFRS incidence was positively associated with density of A. agrarius and crop production, but was inversely associated with difference in water level. The residual analyses and the examination of the accuracy of the models indicate that model III may be the most suitable in the assessment of the relationship between the incidence of HFRS and the independent variables.
Keywords: Animals
Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome
Models, Statistical
Risk Factors
Disease Reservoirs
Endemic Diseases
Time Factors
Rural Population
Provenance: Published online by Cambridge University Press 19 Jun 2006
Rights: Copyright © 2006 Cambridge University Press
DOI: 10.1017/S0950268806006649
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Appears in Collections:Aurora harvest
Environment Institute publications
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