中国人口老龄化的宏观经济后果 : 应用一般均衡分析

Abstract

The paper explores the macroeconomic consequences of the population ageing over the period of 2000 to 2100 in China using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The simulation exercise shows that the main effect of population ageing is to decelerate aggregate economic growth through the negative growth of labour supply and reduction in the rate of physical capital formation. Secondly, material living standards keep improving but at a declining rate. Finally, productivity improvement is the main force that sustains China's economic growth during the 21st century against the backdrop of population ageing.