From scenario planning to scenario network mapping

Abstract

This paper describes four approaches to scenario planning - three conventional, and one new. The conventional approaches are expert scenarios, standardized scenarios, and critical uncertainties method. These three methods have minor differences, related to the ways in which the scenarios are developed, but share most characteristics. A new approach, Scenario Network Mapping (developed by the present author over the last few years) attempts to overcome some of the deficiencies of traditional scenario-building methods.