Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
Type: Conference paper
Title: In what sense is P(A/B) P(B) = P(A,B)? The relationship between distributional format and subjective probability estimates
Author: Bruza, B.
Welsh, M.
Navarro, D.
Begg, S.
Citation: Proceedings of the 32nd Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society Portland, Oregon, August 11-14, 2010 / S. Ohlsson and R. Catrambone (eds.): pp. 1792-1797
Publisher: Cognitive Science Society
Publisher Place: www
Issue Date: 2010
ISBN: 1617388904
Conference Name: Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society (32nd : 2010 : Portland, Oregon)
Editor: Ohlsson, S.
Catrambone, R.
Statement of
Belinda Bruza, Matthew B. Welsh, Daniel J. Navarro and Stephen H. Begg
Abstract: The elicitation of uncertainty is a topic of interest in a range of disciplines. The conversion of expert beliefs into probability distributions can play a role in assisting key decisions in industry. However, elicitation methods can be prone to bias. In this paper we investigate the effect of changing the presentation of stimulus information and question format on elicited judgments of marginal, conditional and joint probabilities. Participants taught a probability distribution in one structure were expected to have difficulty assessing the distribution in another structure. While this pattern was not found, it turned out that training participants on the more difficult task (learning from a conditional structure) improved overall performance.
Keywords: Decision making; cognitive biases; elicitation; probability learning
Rights: © the authors
Grant ID: DP0773794
Appears in Collections:Aurora harvest
Australian School of Petroleum publications

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat 
hdl_64270.pdfPublished version153.92 kBAdobe PDFView/Open

Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.