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Type: Journal article
Title: Computationally exact methods for stochastic periodic dynamics: Spatiotemporal dispersal and temporally forced transmission
Author: Ross, J.
Citation: Journal of Theoretical Biology, 2010; 262(1):14-22
Publisher: Academic Press Ltd
Issue Date: 2010
ISSN: 0022-5193
Statement of
J.V. Ross
Abstract: The dynamics of many diseases and populations possess distinct recurring phases. For example, many species breed only during a subset of the year and the infection dynamics of many pathogens have transmission rates that vary with season. Here I investigate computational methods for studying transient and long-term behaviour of stochastic models which have periodic phases-several different potential techniques for studying long-term behaviour will be contrasted. I illustrate the results with two studies: The first is of a spatially realistic metapopulation model of malleefowl (Leipoa ocellata), a species which disperses only during a quarter of the year; this model is used to highlight the advantages and disadvantages of the particular methods presented. The second study is of a model for disease dynamics which incorporates seasonality in both the rate of within-population transmission and also in the rate of transmission effected via aerosol importation. This model has applications to studying disease invasion and persistence in captive-breeding populations. We demonstrate, via comparison to appropriately matched models with constant transmission rates and also no aerosol transmission, that seasonality and aerosol importation may alter control choices, with possibly an increase in the threshold population size for local control surveillance, transfer of importance to limiting aerosol transmission, and the use of temporally targetted surveillance. The methodology presented is the gold-standard for dealing with many phased processes in ecology and epidemiology, but its application is limited to systems of small size.
Keywords: BCH series
Captive breeding
Leipoa ocellata
Natural-enemy models
Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV)
Rights: © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2009.09.014
Appears in Collections:Aurora harvest
Mathematical Sciences publications

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