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Type: Journal article
Title: How big is an outbreak likely to be? Methods for epidemic final-size calculation
Author: House, T.
Ross, J.
Sirl, D.
Citation: Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 2013; 469(2150):1-22
Publisher: Royal Soc London
Issue Date: 2013
ISSN: 1364-5021
Statement of
Thomas House, Joshua V. Ross and David Sirl
Abstract: Epidemic models have become a routinely used tool to inform policy on infectious disease. A particular interest at the moment is the use of computationally intensive inference to parametrize these models. In this context, numerical efficiency is critically important. We consider methods for evaluating the probability mass function of the total number of infections over the course of a stochastic epidemic, with a focus on homogeneous finite populations, but also considering heterogeneous and large populations. Relevant methods are reviewed critically, with existing and novel extensions also presented. We provide code in Matlab and a systematic comparison of numerical efficiency.
Keywords: epidemiology
infectious disease
Markov chain
Rights: ©2012 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of theCreative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author andsource are credited.
DOI: 10.1098/rspa.2012.0436
Grant ID:
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Mathematical Sciences publications

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