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https://hdl.handle.net/2440/88491
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Type: | Journal article |
Title: | External validation of a prediction model for successful external cephalic version |
Author: | De Hundt, M. Vlemmix, F. Kok, M. van der Steeg, J. Bais, J. Mol, B. van der Post, J. |
Citation: | American Journal of Perinatology: neonatal and maternal-fetal medicine, 2012; 29(3):231-236 |
Publisher: | Thieme Medical Publishing |
Issue Date: | 2012 |
ISSN: | 0735-1631 1098-8785 |
Statement of Responsibility: | Marcella De Hundt, Floortje Vlemmix, Marjolein Kok, Jan W. Van Der Steeg, Joke M. Bais, Ben W. Mol, Joris A. Van Der Post |
Abstract: | We sought external validation of a prediction model for the probability of a successful external cephalic version (ECV). We evaluated the performance of the prediction model with calibration and discrimination. For clinical practice, we developed a score chart to calculate the probability of a successful ECV. We studied 320 women undergoing ECV, of which 117 (37%) were successful. The model underestimated the success rate by 4 to 14%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was moderate (0.66; 95% confidence interval: 0.60 to 0.72), but the model was able to make good distinction between women with a higher predicted probability of a successful ECV (more than 50%) compared with women with a lower predicted probability of a successful ECV (less than 20%). Our model to predict the outcome of ECV holds in external validation. It can be used to support patient counseling and decision making for ECV in singleton term breech presentations. |
Keywords: | breech presentation; external cephalic version; external validation; prediction model |
DOI: | 10.1055/s-0031-1285098 |
Published version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1055/s-0031-1285098 |
Appears in Collections: | Aurora harvest 7 Paediatrics publications |
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