Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://hdl.handle.net/2440/72505
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Type: | Journal article |
Title: | Detection of non-stationarity in precipitation extremes using a max-stable process model |
Author: | Westra, S. Sisson, S. |
Citation: | Journal of Hydrology, 2011; 406(1-2):119-128 |
Publisher: | Elsevier Science BV |
Issue Date: | 2011 |
ISSN: | 0022-1694 1879-2707 |
Statement of Responsibility: | Seth Westra and Scott A. Sisson |
Abstract: | Non-stationarity in extreme precipitation at sub-daily and daily timescales is assessed using a spatial extreme value model based on max-stable process theory. This approach, which was developed to simulate spatial fields comprising observations from multiple point locations, significantly increases the precision of a statistical inference compared to standard univariate methods. Applying the technique to a field of annual maxima derived from 30 sub-daily gauges in east Australia from 1965 to 2005, we find a statistically significant increase of 18% for 6-min rainfall over this period, with smaller increases for longer duration events. We also find an increase of 5.6% and 22.5% per degree of Australian land surface temperature and global sea surface temperature at 6-min durations, respectively, again with smaller scaling relationships for longer durations. In contrast, limited change could be observed in daily rainfall at most locations, with the exception of a statistically significant decline of 7.4% per degree land surface temperature in southwest Western Australia. These results suggest both the importance of better understanding changes to precipitation at the sub-daily timescale, as well as the need to more precisely simulate temporal variability by accounting for the spatial nature of precipitation in the statistical model. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. |
Rights: | © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
DOI: | 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.06.014 |
Grant ID: | http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/DP0877432 http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/DP0877432 |
Published version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.06.014 |
Appears in Collections: | Aurora harvest 5 Civil and Environmental Engineering publications Environment Institute publications |
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hdl_72505.pdf | Accepted version | 1.2 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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