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|Title:||The effect of temperature on different Salmonella serotypes during warm seasons in a Mediterranean climate city, Adelaide, Australia|
|Citation:||Epidemiology and Infection, 2015; 144(6):1231-1240|
|Publisher:||Cambridge University Press|
|A. Milazzo, L. C. Giles, Y. Zhang, A. P. Koehler, J. E. Hiller and P. Bi|
|Abstract:||Changing trends in foodborne disease are influenced by many factors, including temperature. Globally and in Australia, warmer ambient temperatures are projected to rise if climate change continues. Salmonella spp. are a temperature-sensitive pathogen and rising temperature can have a substantial effect on disease burden affecting human health. We examined the relationship between temperature and Salmonella spp. and serotype notifications in Adelaide, Australia. Time-series Poisson regression models were fit to estimate the effect of temperature during warmer months on Salmonella spp. and serotype cases notified from 1990 to 2012. Long-term trends, seasonality, autocorrelation and lagged effects were included in the statistical models. Daily Salmonella spp. counts increased by 1·3% [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1·013, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·008-1·019] per 1 °C rise in temperature in the warm season with greater increases observed in specific serotype and phage-type cases ranging from 3·4% (IRR 1·034, 95% CI 1·008-1·061) to 4·4% (IRR 1·044, 95% CI 1·024-1·064). We observed increased cases of S. Typhimurium PT9 and S. Typhimurium PT108 notifications above a threshold of 39 °C. This study has identified the impact of warm season temperature on different Salmonella spp. strains and confirms higher temperature has a greater effect on phage-type notifications. The findings will contribute targeted information for public health policy interventions, including food safety programmes during warmer weather.|
|Keywords:||Climate – impact of|
infectious disease epidemiology
|Description:||First published online 2 November 2015|
|Rights:||© Cambridge University Press 2015|
|Appears in Collections:||Aurora harvest 3|
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